US data reviewed with GDP tracker update - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a reveiw of the US Wholesale inventories and gave their GDP tracking update.

Key Quotes:

"In the final estimate, wholesale inventories grew 0.1% m-o-m in September, slightly below expectations (Consensus: 0.2%), which was revised downward by 0.1 percentage point from the preliminary estimate of 0.2% m-o-m increase. August wholesale inventories were revised upwards to a decline of 0.1% m-om (previously reported as -0.2% m-o-m).

GDP tracking update: As noted above, the September wholesale inventories estimate was revised downwards from the preliminary estimate by one-tenth of a percentage point, which is weaker than the BEA’s assumptions. This reading implies there was less inventory investment in Q3, suggesting less contribution of inventory investment to Q3 GDP. In addition, the upward revision in August was not sufficient to meaningfully impact our tracking estimate. However, on a rounded basis, our Q3 GDP tracking estimate was unchanged at 3.1%. On the other hand, weaker inventory accumulation in Q3 implies increased inventory accumulation in Q4. Therefore, we revised upwards our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1 percentage point to 1.7% from 1.6%."