US retail sales expected to rise around 0.4% in October - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the most important data for the US is the October retail sales report as retail sales account for about 40% of consumption, which in turn is almost 70% of GDP.  

Key Quotes

“After a strong Q2, consumption was tempered in Q2.  The GDP component of retail sales excludes autos, gasoline, building materials, and a few other goods.  It rose an uninspiring 0.1% in September.  It is expected to rise around 0.4% in October, which would put the two-month average in line with the longer-term averages.  Elsewhere, a surprise on import prices could have implications for tomorrow's PPI report.  The Empire State manufacturing survey covers November.  It is expected to improve to -2.5 from -6.8.  It has not been above zero since July.”