CAD: Expect an above-consensus print of 0.8% for headline retail sales – RBC CM

Sue Trinh, Senior Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that data risk will increase today with the release of the Canada’s September retail sales report.

Key Quotes

“RBC is forecasting an above-consensus print of 0.8%m/m for headline retail sales (cons. 0.6%) on the back of an increase in nominal receipts at motor vehicle dealerships as well as an increase in nominal sales at gas stations. Core sales are expected to more than reverse the -0.1% drop in August by rising by 0.3% in the month, with volumes also rising by 0.5% to reverse the 0.3% decline witnessed in August. The increase in retail sales would be consistent with our expectation that real Q3 consumer spending will rise an annualized 1.7% following the 2.2% increase in Q2. USD/CAD is near our support pivot at 1.3405, with a daily close below this level serving as the catalyst for a deeper retracement toward 1.3265.”