US: Durable goods orders, new home sales and Fed Minutes in focus - SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that US offers up durable goods orders (expect +2.5%$ headline but -0.2% excluding transportation), new home sales (exp +2.9%) and the Minutes of the Nov 1-2 FOMC meeting.

Key Quotes

“The market prices a December rate hike as a ‘done deal’ so what matters is bow data and Fed comments affect pricing further out. The market does now (just) price a Fed Funds rate above 1% at the end of 2017 as a better than 50% chance, but those odds may need to rise from the current 51% to really propel the dollar higher in the near term. As for today, the surprise, clearly, would be a set of Minutes which question the conviction in a hike next month.”