US: Focus on retail sales ahead of Fed - BBH

According to the analysts at BBH, ahead of the FOMC meeting, the US reports retail sales, PPI, industrial output and business inventories. 

Key Quotes

“The most important is retail sales, which roughly accounts for 40% of the two-thirds or more of the economy accounted for by consumption.  After strong gains in October (headline and GDP-measure both rose 0.8%), a milder 0.3% rise is expected.  Industrial output and manufacturing may disappoint.  Capacity utilization is expected to slip to 75.1 from 75.3.  This would be the lowest usage rate since May.  Flattish PPI followed by a drop in capacity utilization may weigh on yields.”

“Late yesterday API reported a 4.68 mln barrel build in US oil inventories, and this is weighing on oil prices today after a four-day 6% rally.  This makes the official DOE estimate more important today.  A 1.35 mln barrel draw is expected.”