US NFP: Jobs growth likely to be around 170,000 – Danske Banks

Analysts at Danske Bank note the US December jobs report is due out today and they estimate job growth was around 170,000 in line with the recent trend.

Key Quotes

“The unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in November, the lowest level post-crisis. However, as this was due partly to a declining labour force, we estimate the unemployment rate has risen back to at least 4.7% in December. Average hourly earnings declined surprisingly in November, due mainly to falling wages among supervisory workers.”

“In 2016, wage inflation for non-supervisory and production workers (constituting 82% of the workforce) was flat. This is possibly due to some degree of compositional effect of low wage workers re-entering employment. We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% m/m in December, implying an increase in the annual wage growth rate to 2.6% y/y, from 2.5% y/y in November.”