CAD: CPI and retail sales data in the limelight - TDS

Research Team at TDS suggests that the Canada’s December CPI inflation and November retail sales will land at 8:30 amid an empty data calendar in the US.

Key Quotes

“TD looks for headline CPI inflation to rebound to 1.7% y/y on a 0.1% m/m increase in prices (market: 1.7% y/y, 0.0% m/m) and a sizeable base-effect, however, the risks are skewed to the downside due to the weakness in measures of core inflation.”

“For retail sales, we look motor vehicles to drive the headline print after a sharp rise in auto sales. We look for a 0.5% increase in the headline series while ex-auto sales should be materially weaker and post a 0.2% decline. The market is more upbeat on core sales, where they look for a flat print, but expects a similar 0.5% gain for headline sales.” 

“US: It’s all about Washington DC and the Presidential inauguration. Trump is scheduled to take his oath of office at noon EST and will take to the podium shortly afterwards. Much like his election night address in November (and recent press conference), his tone will matter just as much as the content of his speech.”