UK Supreme Court ruling on Article 50 in focus this week - BBH

In view of the analysts at BBH, an important non-economic event that investors will be monitoring is the UK Supreme Court ruling on whether Parliament approval is necessary to trigger Article 50.  

Key Quotes

“After Prime Minister May's speech last week, the decision may have lost some of its ability to roil the markets. May reassured that Parliament would vote on the final agreement.”

“Although many in Parliament seem to have some misgivings about the clean break strategy, which had been thought of as a hard Brexit scenario, there is little doubt a majority will vote to trigger Article 50. The failure to do so would likely spark a political crisis.  Northern Ireland will go to the polls on March 2.  An anti-Brexit parliament could still frustrate May's timetable, and Scotland independence efforts may be fanned by the UK government's position.  It is also not immediately clear the implications of the change in leadership of the European Parliament, which will also vote on the final Brexit deal.”    

“The UK also reports the first estimate of Q4 GDP.  UK growth has been remarkably stable. Quarterly growth has averaged 0.6% over the last four and 12 quarters.  Quarterly growth has averaged 0.5% over the past five years.  Economists expect the UK economy grew 0.5%-0.6% in Q4 16.”