Euro area PMIs eyed for indications of economic recovery – RBC CM

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets will watch today’s ‘flash’ euro area PMIs for indications that the broad-based improvement in survey data in Q4 has continued into Q1 of this year (the Q4 PMIs were pointing to growth of 0.5% q/q), signalling a possible shift to a faster-paced recovery, or whether Q4 represents an isolated quarter of stronger GDP expansion.

Key Quotes

“Thus far, the early survey data for the quarter suggests that the pick-up in activity has continued into this quarter, consumer confidence improved further to -4.9 from -5.1 in December. We expect the PMIs to hold at recent highs with some small improvement in the service sector, where we look for a reading of 53.9 vs. a final reading of 53.7 last month, and the manufacturing reading unchanged at 54.9 though consistent with expansion continuing into Q1.”

“Later this afternoon ECB chief economist Peter Praet speaks in Rome at an event on European Integration. The text of his address will be published on the ECB’s website.”