RBNZ preview - what to expect in NZD/USD?

Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7308, up +0.05% or 3-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7333 and low at 0.7282. Furthermore, this pair is about to experience what could be the RBNZ 'forward guidance' in 2017; would it be a hawkish, dovish or a cautious statement?

The New Zealand dollar vs. American dollar has been supported in the last 10-weeks due to a contagious US dollar weakness and the interest rate advantage. There is heavy evidence to allocate long-kiwi bets as the country relies on strong net migration, a booming real estate market, and healthy workforce. Hence, the slightest indication from the RBNZ to consider a possible rate hike in the next 12-months would open doors to see the pair moving as high as 115-pips during the next trading session (for reference use historical data).

On the other hand, a 'trade war' lead by Donald Trump against China, may crash the party for Kiwis as their exports are allocated way above the 50 percent mark in the Chinese market. 

Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 6-weeks that NZD/USD pair had the best trading day at +1.60% (Jan.17) or 115-pips, and the worst at -1.26% (Jan.18) or 89-pips. 

NZD: Reserve Bank event risk - Nomura

In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at 0.7349 (high Jan.29), then at 0.7402 (high Nov.8) and above that at 0.7480 (high Sep.7). While supports are aligned at 0.7230 (low Jan.27), later at 0.7140 (100-DMA) and below that at 0.7075 (low Jan.16). On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) seems to start moving south half-way from the oversold territory. Therefore, there is evidence to expect further dollar gains in the near term. 

On the long term view, if 0.6888 (low Jan. 2017) is in fact, the ongoing bottom for the first semester, then upside barriers are aligned at 0.7303 (short-term 61.8% Fib), to avoid 'false breakouts,' only an open and close above this level would open doors towards 0.7400 round figure. To the downside, supports are aligned at 0.7096 (short-term 50.0% Fib), then a dense support region between 0.6951 (reverse long-term 38.2% Fib) and 0.6888 (short-term 38.2% Fib).

As of writing, the pair trades around 0.7308 in the middle of nowhere on the monthly chart. As evidence to pull the trigger, traders should focus their attention on the 'Doji' which indicates caution as market participants have not defined direction; technicals lead to expect a 50/50 outcome.  

NZD/USD: under pressure, below RBNZ's inflation figures fuelled highs - UOB