AUD/USD rejected near 0.7660; Trump 'wait and see' capped further upside

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7628, down -0.21% or (16)-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7663 and low at 0.7609.

Today's US economic docket was expected to have the same 'old tunes' as market participants had priced Initial Jobless Claims that printed 'a better than expected' 234K figure. As usual, when US dollar short-sellers felt in control, Trump fired words signaling 'near spending and something related to taxes' which immediately energized long-dollar positions.  

Furthermore, the Australian dollar lacked further support from the RBA as the central bank failed to strike down the greenback due to a lack of direction or understanding 'if' the exchange is too high or not because of the country's reasonable growth outlook.

Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 6-weeks that AUD/USD pair, a commodity-linked currency, had the best trading day at +1.18% (Jan.17) or 89-pips, and the worst at -0.81% (Jan.18) or (61)-pips.

AUD/USD finds tough barrier at 0.7700 – Westpac

In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at 0.7695 (high Feb.2), then at 0.7777 (high Nov.8) and above that at 0.7834 (high April.21). While supports are aligned at 0.7576 (low Feb.2), later at 0.7507 (100-DMA) and below that at 0.7436 (50-DMA). On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) seems to have a strong conviction to head south. Therefore, there is evidence to expect further Aussie losses in the near term.  

On the long term view, if 0.7834 (high April 2016) is in fact, a relevant top, then the upside is limited at 0.7809 (short-term 38.2% Fib). Furthermore, if the RBA has 'no ammo' nor tangible reasons to increase rates in 2017 (RBNZ expects to increase sometime in 2019), the interest rate advantage should be decreased organically as the Federal Reserve continues increasing rates with 3-hikes in the next 16-months. To the downside, supports are aligned at 0.7433 (short-term 23.6% Fib), later at  0.7182 (reverse long-term 61.8% Fib) and below that back to 0.6826 (low Jan.2016).

AUD/USD clings to recovery gains after US weekly jobless claims