USD/CAD salutes 1.30, still bearish below 200-DMA; Trump-Trudeau $70 billion at risk

Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3102, up +0.18% or 24-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3121 and low at 1.3072.

The American dollar vs. Canadian dollar pushed 30-pips higher pre-NA trading session as traders adjusted their risk towards the next relevant political event; today's President Trump's meeting with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau at 11:00 a.m. EST in Washington.

In the data front, the Canadian dollar seems vulnerable after last's week 'one-two punch' via a solid 48300 new jobs which signaled better days ahead for the friendly country. The week ahead showcases an empty economic docket for the Loonie. However, traders are prepared to react as they sit fit in a busy US-data calendar. 

Furthermore, Fed's Yellen is next as the central banker faces 'Congressional testimony' which may fuel long-dollar positions.

As usual, the new US administration lead the week with the 'informal structure' having more power than ever against traditional data. Hence, Trump-Trudeau presser at 2:00 p.m. EST must be on the list of "To-Listen' things for serious traders and investors as Canada has two third of their exports moving on a yearly basis to the US with a price tag of $70 billion.

Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 7-weeks that USD/CAD pair, a commodity-linked currency, had the best trading day at +1.71% (Jan.18) or 227-pips, and the worst at -1.02% (Jan.17) or (133)-pips. 

Technical levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at 1.3211 (high Feb.7), then at 1.3280 (100-DMA) which seems to build a 'Walls of Troy' multi-year resistance region since July 2015 and finally above that at 1.3386 (high Jan.20). While supports are aligned at 1.2968 (low Jan.31), later at 1.2818 (low Sept.7) and below that at 1.2650 (low Jun.8). On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) seems to head south towards the oversold territory. Therefore, there is evidence to expect further Canadian dollar gains in the near term.The pair requires a close and open above the 200-DMA near 1.3134 to dilute any bearish pressure that could drag it lower back to 1.2965.

On the long term view, if the 'double Doji' candlestick formation from 1.3587 (high Nov.) and 1.3597 (high Dec.) is in fact, a relevant top, then any upside potential seems limited for this currency pair. Then, to the downside, supports are aligned at 1.2986 (short-term 23.60% Fib), later at 1.2626 (long-term 50.0% Fib) and finally below that at 1.2460 (low May.2016). As of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.3104, therefore upside barriers are aligned at 1.3311 (short-term 38.2% Fib), then at 1.3468 (long-term 61.8% Fib) and finally above that at 1.3574 (short-term 50.0% Fib).

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