Europe: Has the populism peaked? - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura still believe that the risks of an anti-establishment surprise from this year’s elections, and from France in particular, are low and certainly lower than the market appears to believe.

Key Quotes

“The latest polling data, the stability of the support base for the euro, and the large body of evidence suggesting that the economic recovery is maturing and broadening support this conclusion. In France specifically the alliance between Emmanuel Macron and François Bayrou may also help matters. Most importantly, however, the voter support for anti-establishment parties appears to be fading. Our analysis of the key drivers of this support, moreover, such as labour market and equity market trends and the news-flow concerning refugees, suggests that it will continue to fade in the period ahead.”