AUD/USD stabalised on 20-d sma, below 0.77 handle

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7678, up 0.02% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7681 and low at 0.7670.

AUD/USD is stablising along the ascending 200 hourly smoothed ma after a choppy session with the greenback passed around indecisively until later in the US session where the dollar bulls took control and the DXY rallied on to the 101 handle again with markets expecting to get something concrete out of Trump later in the US session today.  

Forex today: Dollar strikes back, 10y recover from multi-week lows

Commodities were also mixed as a result and we now await data for the session in the Australian current account deficit, home sales and January private sector credit. However, the main focus will remain with Trump's address to Congress today and US GDP Q4. Analysts at Westpac suspect that the day ahead and before Trump speaking to Congress will equate to a neutral position in the Aussie and greenback. 

AUD/USD 1-3 month: 

The same analysts at Westpac, on a longer term outlook, expect the Aussie to move lower to 0.7400. The US dollar’s impressive post-election rally may have paused, but still has potential to rise further during the months ahead. "The Fed’s assertive tightening bias plus US fiscal expansion should maintain upside pressure on US interest rates and the US dollar," explained the analysts, adding, "Against that coal and iron ore are likely to sustain a good portion of their dramatic rises, and economic data for Q4 and Q1 should improve, but these forces are subservient to the US dollar’s trend. Australia’s AAA rating will remain an issue into the May budget."

AUD/USD levels

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that technical indicators in the 4 hours chart support a downward extension, as the pair met selling interest on approaches to a flat 20 SMA, while the RSI indicator turned lower, now around 45, and the Momentum indicator accelerated its decline within negative territory, now at fresh 2-week lows. "Nevertheless, the pair needs to break below 0.7600, to confirm additional declines that can extend down to 0.7450 during the following sessions." Meanwhile, below the 20 day ma, the next area of interest is the 0.7595/15 retracement ahead of another upside attempt or before 0.7524 (13 Dec highs).