USD/JPY near term stance stays positive – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair’s outlook remains constructive in the near term.

Key Quotes

“The market continues to recover from the bottom of the range at 111.59 and – we can only assume that we are about to test the 55 day ma at 114.74. We view the recent low at 111.59 as an interim low. Between 111.59/114.66 the market is side lined. A close above the 115.62 19th January high is needed to reintroduce scope to the key short term resistance offered by the 16 month resistance line at 117.84 – and this remains our favoured view”.

“Only below 111.59 would introduce scope to Fibonacci support at 109.92 and, if seen, the 200 day ma at 107.73. We look for this to hold (this is also the 50% retracement of the move up from November). However this is not our favoured view - we also note that the recent move lower continues to indicate that this is the end of the corrective move”.