Canada: GDP growth in Q4 expected at 1.8% q/q annualized – RBC CM

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets expect Canada’s GDP growth in Q4 to come in at 1.8% q/q annualized, slightly above the BoC’s 1.5% January MPR forecast.

Key Quotes

“Net trade is expected to provide an outsized 4.5pp boost in the quarter, with this largely due to a pullback in imports on the energy side and after a one-time module import in Q3 (of ~C$3bn). The latter produced a large gain in non-residential structures investment (16%) that should be mostly retraced in Q4 (-14%). Meanwhile, household consumption is seen continuing to chug along at ~2.5%.”

“The December GDP report released alongside should see a 0.2% m/m gain, with manufacturing and wholesale trade expected to grow ~1%, while retail trade should see a 1% pullback after three months of solid gains.”