When is the RBA and how could it affect AUD/USD?

RBA March meeting overview

It is that time again and the RBA will be announcing its interest rate decision along with an accompanying statement explaining the board's decisions regarding the interest rate. The decision will be announced at 3.30GMT. 

Having eased monetary policy in 2016, the Board judged last month that holding the stance of policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time. The bank is widely expected to remain firmly on hold again this time around due to more upbeat outcomes in domestic and global economic performance. 

Just recently, the RBA was reaffirming its forecasts for 3% growth this year and next with the backdrop of a rebound in the Q4 GDP. Additionally, the recent resurgence in dwelling prices is not something the RBA would wish to accelerate by easing further at this stage. 

With respect to the statement, markets will be looking for forecasts in respect to the economy and the Aussie dollar. Here is a link to the RBA's previous statement: 

How could the event affect AUD/USD?

On a decision to stay put, but accompanied with a more upbeat statement, the Aussie could find territory back on to the 0.76 handle targeting a recovery of the recent sell-off from 0.7640. Given the recent confidence that the market has found in the Fed with respect to the possibility of a rate increase as soon as this month and subsequent gradual normalisation of policy, the Aussie could find it tough maintaining a bid tone after an initial spike.

The 20 dma is located at 0.7657  and YTD highs are at 0.7740. Towards the end of the year, the market was failing ahead of 0.7778/.7850 2016 highs and the 38.2% retracement.  Should the statement lean more towards a dovish forecast and include jawboning of the Aussie, despite the resurgence in the dollar of late, the RBA would be viewed as still very concerned over the exchange rate, commodity prices and economic performance.  Subsequently, the Aussie could be sold off in a continuation of the recent supply, targeting  0.7520 and possibly 0.7450 (the 38.2% and 50% retracements). 

Key notes

AUD/NZD: eyes for 1.1000 - Westpac
AUD/NZD: eyes for 1.1000 - Westpac
Gold struggles to pull away from recent lows

About the RBA rate decision

RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.