AUD/USD: consolidating March's sell-off before next leg to the 0.74 handle?

AUD/USD is slightly soft in the open of Asia, drifting from a high of 0.7558 to lows of 0.7534.

Fed can hike this week - Nomura

AUD/USD has been out of favour with markets for the month of March so far, falling from 0.7680 to 0.7490 recent lows. The US dollar was revved up towards the end of February by Fed speakers advocating for a rate hike as soon as March. Commodities have struggled in such an environment and subsequently so too has the Aussie. 

AUD/USD headed to 0.7400?

Analysts at Westpac explained that the price could go to 0.7400 over the next few months, "The Fed’s assertive tightening bias plus US fiscal expansion should maintain upside pressure on US interest rates and the US dollar. Against that coal and iron ore are likely to sustain a good portion of their dramatic rises, and economic data for Q4 and Q1 should improve, but these forces are subservient to the US dollar’s trend. Australia’s AAA rating will remain an issue into the May budget."

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Commerzbank are also bearish on the price: "We would allow for a deeper sell off towards 0.7450, the 50% retracement, but look for signs of stabilisation there. Intraday rallies will remain directly offered below 0.7637 the 20-day ma. Intraday Elliott waves counts are negative. 

Longer term outlook neutral to negative: 

"The market is failing ahead of the 0.7778/.7850 2016 highs and the 38.2% retracement. Where are we wrong? Above 0.7637 20 day ma will allow for another run up to the 0.7740 recent high. Above 0.7850 would target the 200-month ma at 0.7939."