Scotland: Second independence referendum to be held between autumn 2018 and spring 2019 – Goldman Sachs

According to the analysts at Goldman Sachs, Nicolan Sturgeon has called for Scotland to be granted a second Referendum on independence and for the referendum to be held between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.

Key Quotes

“The announcement from the First Minister came on the eve of the ‘withdrawal from the EU Bill’ becoming UK law, as amendments made in the House of Lords were overturned by the House of Commons yesterday. Scotland’s First Minister maintained that the UK government had “not moved an inch in pursuit of compromise and agreement“ over the desired form that Brexit would take. In response, PM Theresa May questioned the case for holding a referendum but stopped short of ruling it out. The Prime Minister suggested that the timetable suggested by Nicola Sturgeon represented “the worst possible timing”.”

“It will be hard, in our view, for PM May to resist the demand for a second referendum. Yet, the PM’s preferred timing for a Scottish referendum would be after the UK has left the EU, and it is notable that Nicola Sturgeon’s own timetable allows for that possibility. Ms. Sturgeon’s announcement has had two other implications. First, in the very short term, press reports suggest that the PM will now wait to trigger Article 50 until around March 27. Second, and more importantly, the prospect of a Scottish independence referendum may constrain PM May’s negotiations and make her more inclined to endorse a free trade deal for tariff-free trade in goods with the EU. We continue to expect a trade deal to be negotiated for tariff-free trade in goods, with no special deal agreed for services and for financial services therefore to lose EU passporting rights.”