BoE should stay on hold for the next 12 months – Danske Bank

Analyst at Danske Bank Thomas Rosenlund expects the ‘Old Lady’ to keep its monetary stance unchanged for the next year’s time.

Key Quotes

“The EUR/GBP fell slightly and Gilt yields ticked 4bp higher driven by the more hawkish tone in the statement released after the BOE meeting yesterday”.

“The market is now pricing in an accumulated 8bp rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE) in 2017 and 26bp by the end of 2018. However, we still expect the BoE to remain on hold for the next 12 months as (1) we think it is unlikely the BoE will tighten monetary policy in a time of elevated political uncertainty and (2) we think the BoE will continue to prioritise growth over high inflation”.

“We still think the market’s pricing is too hawkish, suggesting little support to GBP driven by higher UK interest rates ahead. Hence, we see risks stemming from relative rates as relatively balanced for EUR/GBP, as the market has turned too hawkish on the ECB pricing as well with a 10bp rate hike priced by March 2018”.