EUR/USD near term outlook neutralizing – Commerzbank

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, EUR/USD stays bid while above 1.0798 for the time being.

Key Quotes

“The cross has eased lower having failed to close above the 1.0877 200 day moving average. The market stays immediately bid above 1.0798 – and we remain unable to rule out a challenge of the 1.0978/1.1000 region. This area is where the 100% Fibonacci extension of the January-to-February advance, projected from the February low, coincides with the 50% retracement of the move down from the May peak. Please note that the intraday Elliott wave counts have become more negative and suggesting that rallies will struggle circa 1.0835 and we suspect the chart is neutralising”.

“Below 1.0760. Will alleviate immediate upside pressure and trigger a slide back to the 55 day ma at 1.0674”.