This year’s European finals are in France – Rabobank

According to analysts at Rabobank, the French elections are no done deal; while Macron seems destined to win, Le Pen still has a chance to win the French presidency.

Key Quotes

“All the candidates have pledged to make France great again, though their economic policy proposals vary widely.”

“Pulling France out of the Eurozone and the EU will be very difficult; even in the case of a victory for Le Pen.”

“Unlike many other European elections, the French choose their next president and their national assembly in two different elections. On April 23 this year the first round of the presidential elections will be held between several candidates in order to determine which two candidates will battle each other in the second and last round to be held on the 7th of May. The legislative election, that determines who will get a seat in the French National Assembly (French parliament), will be held on the 11th and 18th of June.”

“While we think a Macron win is currently the most likely outcome rather than a win for Le Pen, there are other, less likely scenarios too. Macron could make a mistake or be hit by scandal, evaporating his support. Then Fillon could make it to the second round and he, due to scandals around him, is less likely to beat Le Pen. Another scenario is one of the two leftist candidates, or combined ticket, reaching the second round. Results are unpredictable then as rightist voters are unlikely to support these candidates and abstain, in turn supporting Le Pen.”

“This year’s European political finals are played in France”

“Like last year’s Eurocup that was played in France, France will this year again play the leading role in the European election cycle. While the odds are still stacked against a victory by Le Pen, and especially against a subsequent parliamentary elections win, it is a non-negligible risk. If a Le Pen victory materialises, its impact will be substantial as one of the EU’s core member will likely try to tear it apart. In that sense, this year’s political finale will not be played in the Netherlands, Germany or Italy but in France.”