Germany: March CPI will be closely watched - TDS

According to the analysts at TDS, Germany’s March CPI will be closely watched after February’s number came in at a strong 2.2% y/y, primarily due to energy price base effects.

Key Quotes

“We see downside risks with a 1.8% y/y forecast (consensus: 1.9%), as some base effects come off in March, which will be further intensified by the recent decline in oil prices. Furthermore, the timing of Easter this year (April) vs last year (March) will lead to temporary weakness in some holiday-related categories on a year-on-year basis. We don’t envisage headline inflation back above target this year even if WTI/Brent oil prices pick up to our year-end forecasts of $62/bbl.”