What will get the bird out of the  0.6975-0.7090 range?

NZD/USD has made a choppy start to the week, struggling to maintain the 0.70 handle when the consolidation phase on the 0.70 handle gave way in a mixed and slightly risk-off environment. Despite weakness elsewhere, the doll was robust against the antipodeans with quarter/month-end flows. The Aussie fell from 0.7660 to 0.7623 and the kiwi finally managed to recover from 0.6976 to 0.7017.  The US 10yr treasury yields fell from 2.43% to 2.39% and the US dollar index closed unchanged. 

NZD/USD stuck in 0.6975-0.7090 range

Analysts at Westpac explained that given the absence of any major NZ event risk during the week ahead, they adopt a neutral bias, while acknowledging the potential for a stronger US dollar:

"A sharp USD rally could easily take NZD/USD down to around 0.6900. The data calendar this week is again light with only the QV house price report for March of much interest to markets. More attention will be on the GDT dairy auction on Tue, futures pricing currently indicating a nil change (probably reflecting little change to auction volume). 

3 months ahead: 

Against a backdrop of large oscillations in NZD/USD during the past six months, we err on the side of negativity for the next few months. Our main rationale remains our expectation the US dollar will resume its trend higher amid a tighter Fed and stronger US economy. We target 0.6900."

Weekend politics: Brexit getting personal, Trump about to wage war on N.Korea?

NZD/USD levels

NZD/USD was close to a break of the 0.6970/80 support that protects territory towards the 0.6885 mark as being the recent March low. This area is guarding 0.6675 as the 29th May 2016 on a break of the 0.67 handle. On the flipside, we have the 0.7022 resistance that is being tested today. This is a key area of resistance with the 50 sma on the the 4hr chart stands at 0.7024, guarding 0.7083 and the 200-d ema. There is a double bottom at 0.7130 as the mid-Feb lows.