US: NFP and March FOMC minutes in focus this week – BBH

Analysts at BBH point out that US non-farm payrolls are often the single most important economic report in the US monthly data cycle.  

Key Quotes

“After two months of jobs growth in excess of 200k a month, a reversion to the mean seems likely.  It may have been hinted by the increase in weekly jobs claims.  Payback may come from manufacturing and construction sectors, which have been particularly strong.  However, provided that job growth does not collapse, but simply returns to trend, it ought not to impact expectations for Fed policy.  A June hike still seems to be the most likely scenario.”

“The minutes from the March FOMC meeting will be released.  The minutes often have a high noise to signal ratio as voters and non-voters voices are included, and the important views of the leadership are obscured.  The Federal Reserve published the confidence intervals (fan lines) around their projections.  Once introduced, the dot plot cannot be discontinued, but it can be softened, which is precisely what the confidence intervals will accomplish.”