When is the RBA rate decision and how could affect AUD/USD?
RBA interest rate decision overview
The RBA policy decision is expected to be firmly on hold today. Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s April cash rate decision will be known at 2:30pm (GMT 01:30). The RBA's recent minutes for the March meeting were less bullish on the economy due to household incomes and a fragile jobs market. Global risks were also a concern. The housing market is also a delicate are in the economy and, subsequently, rate cuts were ruled out last month and it is unlikely the RBA will change their tune on that point.
How could affect AUD/USD?
With the market fully pricing in a no change and non-event from the RBA, any surprises, either way, could move the market significantly. On of the largest ranges in the Aussie seen over the RBA as an event was over 175 pips on a 4hr chart basis back in 2015.
However, the statement will be an additional factor that could affect the price of the Aussie depending on the language around the Aussie, USD, commodities, housing, inflation and the job market in particular; any significant variations to the previous language around those subjects could be a catalyst. AUD/USD has been neutralizing around the 0.76 handle. An upside surprise from the meeting could eye a break towards .7740/78 resistance area while on the flip side, 0.7539 and the 200-d EMA could be a target.
Key notes
- AUD/USD analysis: struggling with 0.7600 ahead of the RBA
- AUDUSD: Watch out for any surprise in the Trade Balance data
- AUD Bears Look to RBA to Confirm a Top
- AUD/USD: 0.7551 200 day ma eyed - Commerzbank
- AUD/NZD: target 1.08, flipping negative - Westpac
- Forex today: risk-off has Yen and gold outperforming
About the RBA Interest Rate Decision
RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.