Canada: Labour market expected to shift into a lower gear in March – TD Economics

According to the analysts at TD Economics, the Canadian labour market is expected to shift into a lower gear in March, providing a contrast to the robust pace of job creation thus far in Q1.

Key Quotes

“Employment growth is expected to moderate to 5k while softer details should further undermine the headline print. This would represent the second slowest pace of job growth since July 2016 and a sharp deceleration from the current 6m average pace of 36.5k. We look for last month’s surge in full-time hiring to correct, leading to an outperformance in part-time employment growth, while base-effects will make it challenging for wage growth to push higher from the current 1.1% on a year-ago basis.”

“We expect the unemployment rate to push higher to 6.7%, reflecting a modest rebound in labour force growth following the decline in the participation rate last month.”