EUR is more like a coiled spring - SocGen

According to Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, the euro, is more like a coiled spring than anything else due to the ongoing political uncertainties of the region.

Key Quotes

“We will know the result of the first round of the French presidential vote in a week and a half, and we’ll know the eventual winner in two and a half weeks. A Marine Le Pen win would be bad for the euro, of course, and probably drag EUR/USD below parity in short order. But any other result is likely to support it. A rally would be slower than a Le Pen-inspired plunge, but 1.10 is likely quite quickly and we don’t rule out a very sharp spike higher later this year.”

“On current market odds, a 27% chance of a sharp fall, and a 73% chance of a slower rally makes for a difficult bet, but in the longer run there is more upside potential than downside.”