French elections at the forefront – BBH

The research team at BBH explains that another source of political risk may intensify in the days ahead as the first round of the French presidential election takes place on April 23.  

Key Quotes

“Anxiety has been running high as the recent polls suggest that any two of the top four candidates could move into the second round, given the margin of error.”

“The recent movement was the rise of Melenchon, a candidate from the left-wing of the Socialist Party.  Given the two-round nature of the French elections, voters can express their principles in the first round and become more pragmatic in the second.  Polls suggest Melenchon would beat Le Pen in the second round, but it would also be destabilizing.  Even after the presidential election, political risk is unlikely to be alleviated.  Parliament elections will be held in June.  Only Fillon has a bloc in parliament.  Macron and Melenchon would likely reach out to the Socialists, from where they come. Le Pen's National Front also does not have parliamentary representation.”