Global: No significant economic data release over the course of the week ahead - BBH

The research team at BBH explains that economic data over the course of the week ahead is not particularly significant and are unlikely to alter base case views of the different economies.  

Key Quotes

“Survey data has been running ahead of actual performance in the US and Europe.  That means that some softening in the April Empire State and Philly Fed surveys is likely to have little impact.  That same generalization may also apply to the flash eurozone PMI at the end of the week.  No one expects the Fed to hike rates in May, and this makes the Beige Book somewhat less interesting.”

“US utility and extractive sector (oil) may have helped lift industrial output.  However, the manufacturing component looks set to soften, with some negative impulses possibly coming from the auto sector.  One of the factors discouraging new capital expenditures and weighing productivity is that US industry is only using a little more than three-quarters of its capacity.”

“The UK reports March retail sales at the end of the week.  After the outsized rise in February (1.3% excluding petrol), a pullback is expected.  The BRC already reported some dismal figures.  Slower wage growth and higher inflation sap the purchasing power of UK households.”

“There are strong seasonal influences on Japan's trade flows.  The March trade balance often but not always improves over February, which always improves from January.  The consensus expects some deterioration this time.  Exports are expected to slow, while imports rise.  The trade deficit in January-February was about a third smaller than the similar year ago period.”

“Australia reports the minutes from the recent central bank meeting.  A few days before the meeting, regulators tightened rules on mortgage lending.  The housing market had been a concern of RBA officials.  The central bank seems content to bide its time and update its forecasts next month.  With the Bank of Canada on hold, the March CPI report is unlikely to have a lasting impact.  The headline pace is expected to slow, but the new common core is expected to be steady at 1.3%.”