French Election Round 1: Timing, polls and things to watch for – HSBC

Analysts at HSBC explain that the exit polls for the first round likely from 8pm CET on 23 April and Le Pen is still on course to win, followed by Macron, but the recent rise in Mélenchon’s popularity has added a new twist. Also, a high number of voters are still undecided meaning any of the top four candidates could conceivably make the run-off.

Key Quotes

“Exit polls expected from 8pm CET on 23 April

The unpredictable French presidential election is approaching, with the first round on 23 April set to narrow the field down to just two candidates.  If past elections are any guide, exit polls should be published by mainstream media shortly after 8pm CET, although the unusually close race means this could slip.  

Although French law prohibits the French media from publishing exit polls before 8pm CET, when the final polls close, indications may appear on foreign media websites earlier. There will also be official estimates of turnout at 12pm and 5pm on the day.  Surveys indicate that turnout could be low, which we think could favour the far-right nationalist candidate, Marine Le Pen.”  

“Le Pen vs Macron still the central case, but it's now a four-horse race

Polls still indicate that Le Pen will win the first round, with independent centrist Emmanuel Macron coming second.  This remains our central case.  And whether it is Macron, Republican François Fillon or even far-left nationalist Jean-Luc Mélenchon that faces Le Pen in round two, polls suggest she is unlikely to win then.”

“Don't put too much faith in polls: many voters are still undecided   

But this election process has already thrown up a lot of surprises.  This coupled with a high number of undecided voters and the fact that polls have not been very reliable in recent elections elsewhere, mean the outcome of this first round is far from certain.  Indeed, we show that under plausible assumptions, any of the leading four candidates could make it to the second round.  

A big unknown is whether Jean-Luc Mélenchon can maintain his recent momentum in the polls.  He is now neck-and-neck with former favourite Fillon for third place and, on some polls, only 4ppts away from second place and qualifying for the run-off.  

A stronger-than-expected showing for Le Pen and/or Mélenchon could rattle markets severely, given that both favour a referendum on French membership of the euro.   A higher perceived risk of a run-off between these two Eurosceptic candidates has already impacted markets.  Although no polls have so far come close to suggesting a run-off between them is likely, if Mélenchon maintains his recent momentum it can’t be ruled out entirely.”