France: First round of elections will be close - SocGen

Analysts at Societe Generale note that the latest polls confirm the first round of French elections will be close with a 5% range encompassing support for the four main candidates.

Key Quotes

“Yesterday’s Opinionway/Orpi poll for Les Echos puts Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron 22%, Francois Fillon on 21% and Jean Luc Melenchon on 18. The implied odds from Oddschecker.com show M Fillon recovering to edge ahead of Mme Le Pen, and M Macron drifting, but still far ahead. But if M Melenchon’s charge has most momentum, and been replaced to some small degree by a Fillon bounce, the biggest threat to the Euro (a Le Pen/Melenchon second run-off) is becoming slightly less likely. That’s the only first round outcome that would likely see EUR/USD trade at new lows for this cycle ahead of the second round vote. Indeed, unless we go into round two with a significant poll lead for Mme Le Pen, EUR/USD is likely to be at current or higher levels a week from now.”