French elections: Big win for Macron, and for French pollsters – TDS

Analysts at TDS note that the Emmanuel Macron won the first round of presidential voting, and Marine Le Pen will be joining him in the two candidate presidential run-off on 7 May.

Key Quotes

“The results for the top candidates were almost exactly in line with what polling had predicted, leaving us confident that we can look to a big Macron win in the second round, as polls have him wining by nearly a 2:1 ratio.”

“Given renewed trust in the polling data, markets are unlikely to wait until 7 May before pricing out the risk of Frexit, and we look for a risk-on trading environment to start the week. In Europe, markets will turn their attention toward repricing the ECB, and the better macro backdrop in the Eurozone.”

“The upside in the EUR on today’s results has been even more substantial than we had expected. We have been strategically neutral since EURUSD made a first punch above 1.0820/30 and we think investors—with an eye towards the longer horizon—should view an accumulate on-dips stance as appropriate.”