Attention to EM central banks this week – BBH

Analysts at BBH gave their views on this week’s central banks’ meetings in the EM space.

Key Quotes

“Turkey’s central bank meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady.  Half the analysts polled by Bloomberg look for a hike in the Late Liquidity Window rate, but we think the firmer lira gives the bank leeway to remain on hold near-term.  The bank releases its quarterly inflation report Friday, which should give further insight to the bank’s outlook for rates.  Turkey also reports March trade Friday”.

“Central Bank of Russia meets Friday and is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 9.5%.  A small handful of analysts look for steady rates, but we think lower than expected inflation of 4.3% y/y in March will allow the bank to cut 25 bp again”.  

“Hungary’s central bank meets Tuesday and is expected to keep policy steady.  It eased further via unconventional measures at its March meeting and so no further action is likely until the June meeting.  If inflation continues to rise, we believe further easing is unlikely”.