AUD/USD: drops back below 0.74 handle despite strong data releases

AUD/USD has fallen below the 0.74 handle on the release of the domestic data for today for Australia. 

NAB Business Conditions and Confidence hits multi-year highs in April

AUD/USD has otherwise started out on the offer in the MAcron-victory open in early Asia from the closing price of 0.7421. The National Australia Bank Business survey for April came as the highest since January of 2008 for the Business Conditions. These arrived at 14 against the prior 12 and revised from 14. Business Confidence also vastly improved to 13 against the prior 6. However, CAPEX eased to +8.

"Weighing on the Aussie this past week," explained Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, "were softer-than-expected Chinese PMIs, and a neutral RBA. The poor performance of base metals also affected the commodity-related currency, these lasts, affected also by poor Chinese data and delayed news on US Trump's promises of infrastructure investment."

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD has been struggling in recent sessions and falling out of favour with the less committed bulls after failure at the 200-day moving average and the three-month resistance line at 0.7533/51. Analysts at Commerzbank explained that the market has reached the 61.8% retracement at 0.7382 and their target remains the base of the triangle at 0.7287 - "this is a MAJOR breakdown point for the AUD."

Longer term outlook is negative: 

"The repeated failure in the 0.7750/.7836 region turns the market from the topside of a converging range and leaves it heading to the base of the range offered by the 2016-2017 support line at 0.7287. This is expected to eventually break down," suggested the analysts.