AUD/USD: positioned technically for a run to 0.7280 key level?

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7384, down -0.47% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7427 and low at 0.7380.

AUD/USD has come off again since the overnight bid in Asia where the price recovered from the lows of 0.7385 that was made strangely post the positive domestic data. The NAB Monthly Business Survey posted another strong result in April, with both business conditions and confidence improving – pointing to ongoing strength in business activity in the near-term.  Importantly, the Survey pointed to an ongoing improvement in employment conditions – a trend that is critical to the likely path of the RBA’s cash rate. The price eventually went on to reach the highs of 0.7423, around last week's closing price, before selling off again down to aforementioned lows today. 

NY Fed: Inflation expectations decline and employment prospects brighten

AUD/USD has been out of favour for recent week's, mostly with metal prices lagging any positive move sin the commodity sector, dragging on coat tails of the Aussie. Chinses data had also been a concern for Aussie bulls. With a focus turning back to the Fed and Central Banks with the political environment in Europe calmer for now since Macron's landslide victory, the Aussie may continue to feel the pain of the divergence between the Fed and RBA. The market is expecting the Fed to hike rate sin June as a given, especially with the economy continuing to improve.

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD's failure at the 200-day moving average and the three-month resistance line at 0.7533/51 exposes the downside technically. "The market has reached the 61.8% retracement at 0.7382 and their target remains the base of the triangle at 0.7287." Explained analysts at Commerzbank who noted that this is a MAJOR break down point for the AUD. Their longer term outlook is negative as well. "The repeated failure in the 0.7750/0.7836 region turns the market from the topside of a converging range and leaves it heading to the base of the range offered by the 2016-2017 support line at 0.7287."