AUD/USD downside resumes once again, headed to 0.7295?

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7351, down -0.47% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7400 and low at 0.7329.

AUD/USD was offered overnight on the back of the fall in March's retail sales. The major concern here is the poor performances in the labour market along with subdued wage growth that has been cited as the reason for the decline in retail sales. The RBA is expected to hold on the back of this data while the market is pricing in a Fed that is likely to hike rates in June.

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"March retail sales fell 0.1%. The median guesstimate in the Bloomberg survey was for a 0.3% increase after a 0.2% decline in February (revised from -0.1%), explained analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman, adding, "it is the third decline in the past four months. In Q1, adjusted for inflation, retail sales rose 0.1%, which represents a dramatic slowing from the 0.7% (initially 0.9%) rise in Q4 16. " 

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD’s near term outlook is negative. "AUD/USD remains under pressure following its recent rejection from the 200-day moving average and the three-month resistance line at 0.7520/49. The market is approaching the base of a short-term channel at .7340 and our target remains the base of the triangle at 0.7294," explained the analysts who say that this is a MAJOR breakdown point for the AUD. 

Their longer term outlook is also negative: "The repeated failure in the 0.7750/.7836 region turned the market from the topside of a converging range and left it heading to the base of the range offered by the 2016- 2017 support line at 0.7294. This is expected to eventually break down."