AUD/NZD rallies hard by 1.40%, although momentum now slow ahead of the 1.08 handle

Currently, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0763, up 1.39% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0773 and low at 1.0605.

AUD/NZD is currently extending the bullish correction into a full on reversal post the RBNZ announcements that have knocked the bird of its perch and put it back into the mix among its peers who are all struggling against the greenback and commodity prices.  

  • RBNZ keeps interest rates on hold at 1.75%

The RBNZ surprised the markets with a dovish rhetoric that had otherwise been expecting a more hawkish stance from the Central Bank. However, inflation remains a concern to the bank as do global headwinds and they have found such excuses in order to maintain the status quo, signalling to markets that there will not be any moves from the bank for a considerable time frame. 

  • RBNZ's Wheeler: There is a lot of uncertainty around trade protectionism
  • RBNZ's Assistant Gov Spencer: We are expecting to see lots of volatility in inflation numbers
  • RBNZ's Wheeler: Lack of inflation pressure main reason for keeping neutral stance
  • RBNZ's Wheeler: Maybe some increase in house price inflation "but nothing like we've seen in the past"
  • RBNZ presser at 22hrs GMT: what to expect now - Kiwi to drop on more dovishness?

AUD/NZD levels

Analysts at Westpac explained that they expect the cross to move higher to 1.10 in the medium term. "The cross remains well below fair value estimates implied by interest rates, commodity prices and risk sentiment, although it is closing the gap." The immediate resistance is 1.0782 and the 200 ema on the 4hr sticks. A break there opens up the 1.08 handle, although much of the pre RBNZ value in the kiwi has been taken out and the momentum from here is likely to slow down ahead of 1.0850. A fade opens up 1.0720 and 1.0680/90.

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