When are the RBA minutes and how could they affect AUD/USD?

RBA meeting minutes overview

The minutes are due for 0130GMT today. The RBA policy decision was to leave the cash rate steady at a record low of 1.5%. Housing price risks and concerns over a stronger dollar weighing on policy views were in the last minutes that "warranted careful monitoring." Investors will be looking for continuity here considering the recent commentary from officials and continued dovishness in the SoMP with the labour market, housing and household indebtedness to remain key issues.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

With the market fully pricing in a' no -change' to rates for the rest of this year, any surprises in the language of the minutes, either way, could move the market significantly. One of the largest ranges in the Aussie seen over events related to the RBA were over 175 pips on a 4hr chart basis back in 2015. The minutes could offer additional insights into the RBA's current mindset in regards to key areas such as the Aussie, USD, commodities, housing, inflation and the job market in particular; with any significant variations to the previous language in the statement or previous minutes around those subjects would be a catalyst.

AUD/USD has been in a reversal since the 10th May of the start of the month's extension of the late March supply from 0.7750. The range is now between 0.7750 and 0.7328 with fresh lows scored for the year so far since the last minutes. Any upside surprises from the meeting could eye a break towards 0.7450 resistance area while on the flip side, a break below the 10-sma on the 4hr sticks at 0.7409 opens 0.7380 as a target.

Key notes:

• AUD/USD analysis: bearish trend persists in the background
• AUDUSD – break of key barriers at 0.7461/67 needed to extend recovery

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.