US: JOLTS data in focus today - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura suggest that given the fall in the number of the unemployed in the April household employment survey, a further increase in the vacancy to unemployment ratio would be unsurprising in April.

Key Quotes

“Job openings increased steadily in March for the third consecutive month. At 5743k, vacancy postings were at their highest since July 2016 (the post-crisis peak). The variation in job openings across industries had been somewhat broad: over the past six months, industries such as manufacturing (+68k) and education & health services (+59k) have gained some momentum while retail trade (-65k) and construction (-65k) have retreated somewhat.”

“Most recently in March, professional & business services posted a large increase of +123k, driving the top-line increase. The job openings rate remained elevated at 3.8%, within the range of 3.5-4.0% seen since March 2015. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers was at 0.79, well-above the precrisis peak of 0.7, indicating substantial tightness in the labor market. Moreover, the quits rate remained unchanged at 2.1%, pointing to continued willingness among workers to voluntarily separate from their employers.”

“Given the fall in the number of the unemployed in the April household employment survey, a further increase in the vacancy to unemployment ratio would be unsurprising in April. Note this will be the last reading of vacancies and quits before the 13-14 June FOMC meeting.”