EUR: Potentially turning - BBH

The euro appears to be potentially turning suggests the analysis team at BBH as for four sessions it knocked on $1.1285, trying to clear $1.13, with some talk of a move back to $1.16, last year's high.    

Key Quotes

“The euro is softening and the RSI and MACDs warned of more downside risk ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.  The euro slipped below its 20-day moving average (~$1.1190) for the first time since April 18, but managed to finish the week a couple ticks above it.  It has retraced more than 61.8% of the last leg up that began at the end of of May from $1.1110.  That retracement objective was $1.1180.  A break of the $1.1100 area could quickly see $1.1050.”

“There is a potential double top in the euro and the $1.1110 is the neck line.  If valid, the measuring objective of the pattern is near $1.0935, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement objective of the rally since the start of the year and the 50% retracement of the rally since the April 10 low (~$1.0570).   The widening premium the US also offers over Germany should also weigh on the euro.    On the other hand, a move above $1.13 will excite the bearish dollar consensus that has emerged, and spur talk of a move to $1.15-$1.16, the latter being last year's high.”