6 Feb 2014
Flash: RBA uncomfortable with AUD valuation? - OCBC Bank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank suspects that the RBA may be uncomfortable with AUD’s present valuation.
Key Quotes
"AUD/USD This morning, the Dec trade numbers posted a surprise surplus (4Q retail sales numbers were in line with expectations) allowing the AUD-USD to blip higher. On Wed, particularly candid and dovish remarks from an external RBA board member Edwards kept the AUD-USD capped after he stated that the AUD’s recent decline is “not necessarily over”."
"From our perspective, this may imply that while the RBA’s discomfort with the valuation of the AUD may have moderated, further weakness in the currency may well be welcome. In the short term, if the pair manages to lift past its 55-day MA (0.8937) convincingly, the pair may have to contend with resistance levels expected at 0.9000, 0.9040 and 0.9078."
Key Quotes
"AUD/USD This morning, the Dec trade numbers posted a surprise surplus (4Q retail sales numbers were in line with expectations) allowing the AUD-USD to blip higher. On Wed, particularly candid and dovish remarks from an external RBA board member Edwards kept the AUD-USD capped after he stated that the AUD’s recent decline is “not necessarily over”."
"From our perspective, this may imply that while the RBA’s discomfort with the valuation of the AUD may have moderated, further weakness in the currency may well be welcome. In the short term, if the pair manages to lift past its 55-day MA (0.8937) convincingly, the pair may have to contend with resistance levels expected at 0.9000, 0.9040 and 0.9078."