When are Eurozone flash CPIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone CPI flash estimate Overview

Eurostat will publish the euro zone's inflation first estimate for June at 09.00GMT today. Consumer prices are expected to show a decrease to 1.2% on a yearly basis, following a 1.4% reading seen previously. While the core figures are expected to remain unchanged at 1% in June.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 50 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

If the CPI comes weaker-than-expected, it would extend the correction in EUR/USD back below 1.14000 levels. On the other hand, an upside surprise in the CPI data could provide extra legs to the ongoing rally in the Euro, which could take the rate back towards 1.15 handle.

All eyes are on the Eurozone inflation figures, especially in light of the latest hawkish remarks from the ECB Chief Draghi, citing that the recent weakness in inflation is temporary. Draghi Speech: "Reflationary forces have replaced deflationary forces"

Key notes

Eurozone HICP to slip from 1.4% to 1.1% y/y in June - TDS

Euro area inflation likely down to 1.30% y/y in June – Danske Bank

About Eurozone CPI flash estimate

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).