Australia: RBA decision is the key – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank lists down the key economic releases for Australia this week and points out that RBA decision on Tuesday will be the key event.

Key Quotes

“The RBA cash rate decision is due Tuesday. We expect the Bank to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%, though we think there is some risk the post-meeting statement takes a hawkish turn. Retail sales figures for May are also due Tuesday. The April outturn saw a strong 1.0%mom rise, though this followed soft prints across the prior two months. As such, we do not expect any 'snap-back'; rather, our forecast is for a 0.2%mom rise - in line with where we see the (soft) trend in retail at present.”

“We expect the trade balance, due Thursday to show a $1bn surplus. Within the details, we expect some softening in imports, particularly consumption imports, and while lower commodity prices in the month will weigh on exports, we have factored some recovery in coal export volumes following some weather-related disruptions in April (though we note the risk that this recovery takes a little longer to emerge).”