Further escalation of the North Korea crisis: Keep an eye on the G20 meeting - Danske Bank

Analysts from Danske Bank point out that the launch of another missile in North Korea is another testimony that the country continues to move on with its nuclear ambitions, at the same time the US has been very clear that it will not allow North Korea to develop the capability of hitting the US with nuclear weapons.

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“North Korea overnight carried out its most advanced missile test so far with the launch of what was probably an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). It was the 11th round of missile tests this year, but the first test of the long-ranging ICMB that is needed to reach the US."

“The test underlines that North Korea is not backing down from its nuclear ambitions but instead continues to make progress in its goal to reach the US with a nuclear warhead. It is one of the most difficult military challenges the US has faced since the Cold War.”

“Experts believe that North Korea may only be a couple of years away from this. At the same time the US has been very clear that it will not allow North Korea to develop the capability of hitting the US with nuclear weapons. It seems clear that a solution will have to be found under the reign of US President Donald Trump and his advisors.”

“Keep an eye on the G20 meeting. Japan said on Monday that the US, South Korea and Japan will have a trilateral summit on North Korea at the G20 meeting in Hamburg this weekend (7-8 July). On Tuesday Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe also said he would ask China and Russia to play a more constructive role in efforts to stop North Korea. As the threat from North Korea rises, Japan may increasingly push to scale up its military power, which would most likely anger China and increase tensions in the Asian region.”

“Another hot issue at the G20 meeting that could make the environment for the talks difficult is the area of trade and protectionism. Trump may send a signal of coming protection of US steel workers or of other areas which would anger both the EU and China.”