US: ADP employment likely to print 185K this month - Rabobank

Michael Every, Senior Asia-Pacific Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that the US ADP employment series is seen up 185K this month after 253K last month.

Key Quotes

“One has to feel sorry for that series. They promise they use exactly the same methodology of the official BLS payrolls data, yet are often out by around 100K on the number. Does that mean the ADP are just inept, or that the whole methodology is random-walkish?”

“Then it’s the US trade balance, Canadian building permits, and the US Markit services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing survey. Will we see anything there to take the wind out of the Fed (and other central banks’) sails? Even if the data are weaker than expected, the Fed minutes suggest they see doing nothing as entailing its own risks, of course. (We can surmise that for many Fed members, the Phillips Curve is very much alive and kicking.)”