US: ADP to report an increase of 160k for June - Nomura

Reflecting Nomura’s forecast for private payrolls in the BLS employment report on Friday, analysts at Nomura expect US ADP to report an increase of 160k in private payrolls for June (Consensus: 185k). 

Key Quotes

“Initial jobless claims: For the week ending 24 June, initial unemployment insurance claims increased by 2k to 244k. Looking through the monthly volatility, the four-week moving average of this series decreased slightly to 242k from 245k one week prior. For the week ending 17 June, continuing claims increased 6k to 1948k. This series dropped sharply over the first five months of 2017 but has recently picked up slightly. However, both series for unemployment insurance remain low by historical standards, indicating continued strength in the labor market as firms remain reluctant to let go of their workers. Reflecting this continued labor market strength, we expect both series to remain subdued over the medium term.”