US: NFP likely to rebound to 210k levels in June – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s US economists expect a Non-farm payrolls to post a slightly more meaningful rebound to 210k which is above the market consensus figure of 178k.

Key Quotes

“Following the low 138k print in May the consensus for June is currently sitting at 178k. Our US economists expect a slightly more meaningful rebound to 210k which would be likely sufficient to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% assuming a slight nudge up in the participation rate.”

“Yesterday’s ADP print (158k vs. 188k expected) was a little less than what the market had expected (and included 33k of downward revisions) however it’s worth noting that the employment components in both of the ISM’s this week have been overall fairly solid (57.2 for the manufacturing sector and 55.8 for the services sector) and also that the ADP hasn’t necessarily been the best predictor of payrolls in recent months. As always also keep an eye on other elements of the report including average hourly earnings (+0.3% mom expected).”