US NFP: Looking for a bounce to around 190k in June - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac suggest that job growth tends to be volatile on a monthly basis and after a string of soft outcomes, they are looking for a bounce in US NFP for June, circa 190k.

Key Quotes

“The past three months nonfarm payroll outcomes have been disappointing for the market. The May outcome of 138k was below expectations and also came with 66k in downward revisions to March and April. That left the average for the three months to May at 121k, a material step down from 2016's 187k pace.”

“However, this is not cause for concern. Given we are late in an expansion cycle and full employment has been achieved, employment growth should be expected to slow. A month average pace in excess of 100k is a positive trend.”

“From the household survey, having fallen to 4.3% in May, we expect the unemployment rate to edge back up to 4.4% in June as participation ticks higher.”