G20: US the clear winner, China lost the most - BBH

In view of analysts at BBH, the US won the recognition in the recently concluded G20 meet that there were legitimate trade defense measures and a November deadline to begin addressing the over-capacity in the steel.  

Key Quotes

“The US is threatening to put tariffs or tariffs and quotas on imported steel.”

“Although it seemed that the decision was going to be made at the end of June, the G20 meeting appears to have bought some time.  Imposing the steel duties ahead of the deadline would be seen as particularly aggressive.  Note that the US is formally investigating aluminum imports on national security grounds as well.  However, there is growing frustration with legislative inaction (the GOP Senate health care plan still does not have a majority, according to reports, as Congress returns to Washington).”

“If summits have winners and losers, Trump and Putin appear to have done fine.  In a snub to American intelligence service and environmental concerns championed by Europe, the two leaders had their first bilateral meeting while the G8 were discussing climate protection.  Trump reportedly was willing to accept Putin's denial of hacking into the US to influence the 2016 campaign at face value, while another cease-fire was agreed in Syria.”

“President Xi of China might have lost the most.  The US-Russia dialogue was center stage.  Xi did not want the focus to be on steel overcapacity, for which China is the critical player.  The flare-up of a longstanding territorial dispute with India made for some uncomfortable meetings, according to reports.”

“Reports suggest that many of the members at the G20 were prepared to support a joint declaration condemning North Korea, but the US did not put forward such a motion.  It may not change things on the ground, but displays a vacuum of leadership that makes investors uncomfortable.”